The 15 points puts them in a mathematical tie with Chicago for the worst record in the NHL. Chicago has the tiebreaker based on having a shootout win that Nashville does not, and a better goal differential.
Nashville ranks near the bottom in many offensive categories, sporting the second-lowest shooting percentage in the league at 8.1%. Only the defending Western Conference Champion Edmonton Oilers sit lower (7.9%). The Oilers are two points out of the Pacific Division lead.
Through 19 games, the Predators sport only 46 goals, led by Philip Forsberg’s eight. Despite Nashville having the ninth-best power play in the league at 23.3%, the Predators are in the top 10 of most penalized teams (193 penalty minutes). Their 90.8% penalty kill is the best in the NHL, but eventually the defense will break down in front of Jusi Saros, and that number will be a thing of the past if things do not change quickly in Smashville.
The Predators have $18 million tied up by three players that were free agent splashes the past two seasons. There is an additional $7.5 million accounted for by players that have not been with the organization for more than two years, but we can talk about that later. Ryan O’Reilly was brought in last summer after a brief stint in Toronto. O’Reilly was dealt to the Maple Leafs by the St. Louis Blues just a few seasons after winning the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Stanley Cup in 2019. So far this season, O’Reilly has three goals, eight assists, and a -6 in plus/minus, with a $4.5 million cap hit.
Then we go to Jonathan Marchessault, who won the Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup with Vegas in 2023. Three goals, seven assists, and a -11 are what Nashville is getting from Marchessault this season, to the tune of $5.5 million.
Lastly we have to look at future Hall of Famer Steven Stamkos, who was one of the crown jewels of the entire NHL free agency period this summer. The former Tampa Bay Lightning captain and 500-goal scorer signed a 4-year, $32 million deal on July 1, in a move that stunned the hockey world. Despite having five power play goals, two of which came against Vancouver Sunday, Stamkos only has one even strength tally, and four assists. His -13 is a team high.
With Winnipeg’s record-setting start pushing the pace in the Central Division, Nashville could be looking pushing for a wild card spot, rather than a top three in the division in the spring. Nashville has the potential to leapfrog St. Louis and Utah by the end of the month, but cannot keep this pace up if they plan on catching the Jets, Minnesota, Colorado and Dallas.
Even with just over $3 million in cap space, the Predators are still paying Matt Duchene $5.5 million this year as the first stage of his 2023 buyout. Duchene signed a 7-year, $56 million deal in the summer of 2019, and was traded to Colorado in 2022. Currently Duchene has spent the past two seasons in Dallas on a pair of one year deals worth $3 million annually. Next season, that cap hit climbs to $6.5 million, before tapering off to $1.5 million for the next three years.
It gets better…enter Kyle Turris.
Turris was part of the package Colorado sent back in the Duchene trade. Shortly after being acquired, Turris signed a 6-year extension worth $36 million. Just two years in, Nashville bought Turris out of his contract, where he signed a two-year deal with Edmonton. Retiring in 2022, Nashville received temporary relief in the short term, saving $4 million in salary cap space the first four years after the buyout, but then in turn take a $2 million hit the following four years.
This means Nashville will be paying $8.5 million against the cap between Duchene and Turris. Duchene may be onto his sixth NHL team, while Turris is an adviser to the General Manager of the Coquitlam Express, a British Columbia junior “A” league franchise.
Turris was part of the package Colorado sent back in the Duchene trade. Shortly after being acquired, Turris signed a 6-year extension worth $36 million. Just two years in, Nashville bought Turris out of his contract, where he signed a two-year deal with Edmonton. Retiring in 2022, Nashville received temporary relief in the short term, saving $4 million in salary cap space the first four years after the buyout, but then in turn take a $2 million hit the following four years.
This means Nashville will be paying $8.5 million against the cap between Duchene and Turris. Duchene may be onto his sixth NHL team, while Turris is an adviser to the General Manager of the Coquitlam Express, a British Columbia junior “A” league franchise.
The lack of production should not mean that Andrew Brunette should be on the hot seat as head coach, much like how Jim Montgomery was fired in Boston on Tuesday for how much the Bruins have underperformed. Keep in mind that Montgomery just two years ago guided Boston to the single greatest regular season in NHL history, only to lose in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs to Florida.
Brunette was thrust into the head coach position in Florida in the aftermath of Joel Quenville stepping down as part of the Chicago Blackhawks sexual abuse scandal. Brunette led Florida to the Atlantic Division championship, but were swept in the second round. After Paul Maurice became available, Brunette was quickly shown the door, and is now in his second season in Nashville, leading the Predators to the playoffs last year, a six-game defeat to Vancouver.
When trying to land the largest names in free agency is your plan of action, the outcome is always limited to two options. The first is when you can maximize your return of investment to a Stanley Cup like Colorado did just a few years ago. The other is what has plagued Toronto since really the acquisition of John Tavares in 2018. Nashville still has a lot of hockey left in this season, but a very short window with the ages of the three signings I discussed above.
Sometimes your return of investment is based on past successes, and lands you amongst history you would rather not be attached to.
-JC24