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05 November 2024

NCAA - Hoosier Football Rolling, but Biggest Tests Loom Large in November


Polling 17th out of 18 teams in the Big 10 was not the outlook that the Indiana Hoosiers had for the 2024 season. Be competitive, maybe make a bowl game, but improve over a 3-9 season in 2023 that saw a 1-8 record in the Big 10.

Tom Allen was fired after seven seasons and two bowl appearances, but none since 2020. The Hoosiers had nine wins over the past three seasons combined when Curt Cignetti was hired away from James Madison to be their next head coach.

After nine games in 2024, the Hoosiers are perfect, and have the third-ranked scoring offense in Division I (46.6 PPG). With three games remaining, Indiana is currently tied with the Oregon Ducks for first place in the Big 10, and has climbed to eighth in the current Associated Press poll.

Now let’s see how bad the College Football Playoff Committee slights Indiana for not having played a ranked team yet this season, once the first rankings are released on Tuesday night.

Indiana will face Ohio State on November 23, in a matchup of top 10 teams, assuming the Hoosiers hold serve when hosting Michigan on Saturday. For Ohio State, the meeting will be their third of the season. Only twice this season has Indiana won by fewer than 20 points, 14 over Washington two weeks ago, and 17 over Northwestern on October 5.

Their #8 ranking makes this the first time since the Covid year of 2020 where Indiana has been in the Top 10. Regardless of their schedule, Indiana joins only Oregon, BYU, Miami (FL), and Army as the only five unbeatens remaining in Division I-A. Even if Michigan and Ohio State earn victories, the Hoosiers should reclaim the Old Oaken Bucket against Purdue on November 30, securing their first double-digit win season in the 137 year history of their football program.

Tom Allen was fired last season after three consecutive losing seasons, but did earn a pair of bowl appearances in 2019 and 2020. Indiana lost both games, and have not won a postseason matchup since a 24-0 victory over Baylor in the 1991 Copper Bowl, which is now known after several rebrands as the Rate Bowl. Indiana’s last trip to a major bowl game resulted in a 14-3 loss to USC in the 1967 Rose Bowl. The 1967 season was also the last time Indiana finished higher than third in the Big 10, when the conference was still only 10 teams.

Cignetti guided James Madison to an 11-2 mark in 2023, capped off by their first bowl appearance in just their second year in Division I-A. Schools have to wait a probationary period of two years to become bowl eligible when elevating to I-A, but the Dukes were such a strong program the entire 2023 season, that the selection committee had no other option to leave them home for the holidays. Despite losing the Armed Forces Bowl 31-21 to Air Force, Cignetti was 52-9 in five seasons at James Madison, with the first three years having the Dukes in the semifinals of the I-AA championship tournament, including the runner-up in 2019.

Unlike when Tom Crean left Marquette in 2008 to take over Indiana’s basketball program, Cignetti will have the Hoosiers playing meaningful football during the final month of the regular season the first year he stepped on campus. Crean needed three years in Bloomington just to get Indiana into the NCAA Tournament, and never advanced past the Sweet 16. For every Scott Frost that fails jumping from a mid-major to a conference program, Cignetti continues to succeed with every level he advances through the collegiate coaching ranks.

The transformation Cignetti has already achieved with starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke is evidence enough. Rourke, a senior from Oakville, Ontario, Canada, has already surpassed last season’s total for touchdowns (2023 - 11, 2024 - 19), and is three yards away (2,204) from surpassing his 2023 mark. His completion percentage (73.3) is a shade under 10 points better than a year ago, and while attempting 93 fewer passes. Rourke would need nearly 1,000 yards and six more touchdowns to eclipse his career-best marks set in 2022, but he should have at least four more games to get there.

Despite losing three in a row, and five of six to Purdue, there is little doubt where the Old Oaken Bucket will reside in the state of Indiana after Thanksgiving weekend. While Ohio State will be looking to run the score up on Michigan to solidify standing in the playoffs, the Hoosiers are in a win-or-go-home mode the remainder of their schedule. If Ohio State runs Indiana off the field in three weeks, does the committee hammer the Hoosiers to the point of playing before Christmas? What happens if Indiana stuns the Buckeyes in Columbus, setting up a date with Oregon at the Big 10 Championship Game?

The idea that Indiana could be the fourth team out of the Big 10 to make the inaugural expanded playoff does sound very appealing, especially when you add in the possibility of an independent Notre Dame and already top 12 Boise State as your Group of Five representative. Based on only the current AP rankings, the Hoosiers would travel to Tennessee in the opening round of the playoffs.

-JC24