Boston was 37-48 when the calendar changed over to July, which was part of the reason that manager Alex Cora was fired on April 25. The Red Sox started 10-17 when Cora was replaced by Chad Tracy. The Red Sox now sit at 52-48, two games in front of Seattle for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
The Red Sox were the talk of the MLB going into the All Star break, having won nine in a row, and looking to climb back to .500 for the first time since a win on Opening Day. Boston then trampled the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays 28-10 over the course of a four-game sweep to open the second half of the season, in arguably the biggest statement in baseball outside of the New York Mets futility. The winning streak has Boston within six games of Tampa in the AL East, and just 3.5 games behind their rival, the New York Yankees.
Even after losing back-to-back games to the Washington Nationals the two days before the streak began by a combined score of 18-3, Boston swept all four games against New York in Fenway Park at the end of June, and have overall won 21 out of their last 24 games. In fact, the Red Sox’s run differential has shot up to a +49, which is better than Tampa. Boston is 29-21 on the road, but only 23-27 at Fenway.
You have to think with this run that the team is more concerned about getting the home record above .500 more than the overall record.
What is more astonishing about this turnaround from a historic franchise midseason, is Boston is operating with a middle-of-the-road payroll, and went from sellers to buyers in less time than it has taken LeBron James to make a decision where he wants to play basketball next season. The Red Sox $222 million payroll ranks 11th highest, which shows a new direction for a franchise that joined the Yankees in being big spenders to bring championships to the city.
That philosophy certainly did the Red Sox no favors, as they have only made the playoffs twice since winning their last championship in 2018. Boston lost to the Astros in the AL Championship Series in 2021, and to the Yankees in the Wild Card round last fall. Mixed in there were three last-place finishes in the AL East.
Willson Contreras is putting up MVP-like numbers, hitting .292, with 10 home runs, 66 RBIs, and an OPS of .942. All four are in the top 20, with the OPS being sixth-best. Contreras is only one of four Red Sox hitters to have reached double digits in home runs to this point. The starting rotation is the primary reason that Boston now has a real look at the postseason. All five pitchers to have started at least 10 games (Sonny Gray, Connelly Early, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, and Jake Bennett) have an ERA of 3.31 or below. Bennett is at 2.58, and Gray is at 2.48. Gray’s 12 wins are tied for the most in all of baseball with three others, and his 13 quality starts are fourth-best.
One player not having the best season on paper is star outfielder Jarren Duran. The 29-year-old is hitting a beleaguered .193, with 13 HRs, and 52 RBIs in 93 games. However, his OPS of .599 is 11th-best. Remember what Billy Bean (or Brad Pitt) told us…”he gets on base.” If Boston is going to make a run, Duran has got to improve with his average, and cut down on his strikeouts. Duran has 118 strikeouts thus far, which is 23 more than any other player on the roster, sixth-worst in the American League. To make the argument even worse, all five players above him are at least hitting .200 on the season in just as many games.
As we reach the 100 games mark for all 30 teams around the league, Boston has to remember that while you can sprint during a marathon, there still needs to be some gas left in the tank for the final stretch. The key should not be striving to match Cleveland’s American League-record 22-game streak set in 2018, but to stay consistent enough that they are within striking distance of both New York and Tampa once we reach Labor Day in six weeks. The possibilities are certainly there, as Boston has the 10th-easiest strength of schedule (.493 opponent winning percentage) the final two months of the regular season. The problem is that Tampa Bay is fourth-easiest (.488), and Cleveland is easiest (.467).
Hell, Boston still needs to get to 19 straight in order to match the Yankees’ longest winning streak in their franchise history.
-JC24