The Hurricanes started 5-0 in 2025, before losing two of three in conference play to fall out of the top 15. Miami climbed as high as #2 in the Associate Press poll, before the losses to Louisville and SMU dropped them to #18. When Miami was sitting home for the ACC Championship game, the Hurricanes sat at #10 in the College Football Playoff ranking, hoping their resume was strong enough to warrant one of the 12 spots.
Could we really call it an upset if Miami wins it all, when many around the country thought Miami was going to be in this position after beating three ranked teams in their first five games?
On a rainy night in Hard Rock Stadium in their opening game, Miami needed a field goal with 1:04 remaining to take down then-#6 Notre Dame. The Hurricanes followed up with a win against then-#18 South Florida in Week 3, and a 28-22 win over then-#18 Florida State in Week 5 on the road. When Notre Dame brings up why they were left out of the College Football Playoff and Miami got in, the head-to-head matchup was directly cited by the committee as the deciding factor.
A 24-22 loss at home to Louisville dropped the Hurricanes to #9, and then an overtime loss two weeks later at SMU had most around the country writing Miami off for both the playoff, and started calculating ways Miami could even reach the ACC Championship Game.
Miami righted the ship under Cristobal, winning their final four games by an average score of 38-12, including throttling #22 Pittsburgh on the road to close the regular season.
The Hurricanes went into College Station to play #7 Texas A&M in the first round, a team that lost out on the SEC Championship Game on a tie-breaker, having only one loss on the season. In 2025, the first round games were seen as laughable for the routs that took place. The four in 2026 were no different, despite Miami coming away with a 10-3 win. Bear in mind that this was a 3-3 game until Malachi Toney caught an 11-yard touchdown from Carson Beck with 1:44 remaining in the game as the winning score.
In fact, Beck, the senior transfer from Georgia has only thrown for 509 yards in the three Miami playoff games, but has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-to-1. Beck threw for 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions to this point, and has a 73.3-percent completion ratio, among the best in college football this season. He has been sacked eight times through three games, and that number figures to climb against Indiana’s hulking pass rush next week.
This was a Miami team that was given only a 30% chance to win against defending-champion Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl in the quarterfinals. Ohio State was coming off a 25-day layoff after losing to Indiana in the Big 10 Championship game, and earned the #2 seed and a first round-bye. Miami punched Ohio State in the mouth the entire night, taking a 14-0 lead into halftime, and bullying the Buckeyes in the fourth quarter when Ohio State cut the lead to 17-14 less than two minutes in. The win was sweet revenge for the Hurricanes, who lost the 2003 National Championship Game in double overtime to Ohio State.
Beck has thrown for 3,500 yards three times since becoming a starter (well he threw for 3,485 in 2024). A National Championship at Georgia last year would have seen Beck currently playing in the NFL, but he decided to come back for one more run at a National Championship after Georgia’s stunning loss in the quarterfinals last year to Notre Dame as the #2 seed. Miami’s win over Mississippi in the Fiesta Bowl (semifinals) was highlighted by four lead changes in the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter. Beck capped off the scoring with a 3-yard touchdown run with just 18 seconds left. After being flagged 10 times in the win over the Buckeyes, Miami did not draw a single penalty all night against the Rebels.
Mississippi was only flagged twice themselves.
The Championship will be held in Hard Rock Stadium, Miami’s home field, where Indiana initially opened as a 5.5-point favorite. (As of Sunday, the line has expanded to Indiana -7.5.) While Miami has been in three close games that needed late scores to win, Indiana stomped Alabama 38-8 in the quarterfinals, and dismantled Big 10 rival Oregon 56-22 on Friday night, a game they led 42-7 just minutes into the third quarter. ESPN analytics already have Indiana as a 68.3-percent favorite as well.
Either Miami breaks through and wins their sixth title, or Indiana and second-year head coach Curt Cignetti shocks the college football world with the greatest two-year turnaround in the history of the sport to get their first title in 139 years of the program. We all know Indiana quarterback, and 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza will be the first overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders in April’s NFL draft, win or lose.
The only storyline that could top this would be if Oregon had advanced, and we got Cristobal going for a championship against his former school. This is a testament to just how amazing Indiana’s run to be in the title game has been all season long. Every time someone is expecting the other shoe to drop, the Hoosiers come back with another “biggest win in program history.”
“IU against ‘The U’” we hope will be the perfect send-off for the 2025 college football season.
-JC24