For the first time in the history of the playoff, an undefeated Power Five conference champion was left home, with Florida State (13-0) being relegated to the Capital One Orange Bowl on December 30.
Florida State’s fate was basically sealed with the Texas Longhorns winning the Big 12 Championship by nearly 30 points earlier Saturday afternoon.
While there was a lot of talk about whether starting quarterback Quinn Ewers would be replaced by Arch Manning at some point, the Longhorns won close game after close game in the Big 12, saving their most impressive work for their most recent two games. A 57-7 win over Texas Tech saw Texas rack up 528 yards of offense, while their 49-21 win over #18 Oklahoma State Saturday boasted 662 yards of offense, and 35 first half points.
Texas had four wins against Top 25 schools, while a fifth was snatched away with Oklahoma’s final minute rally in the Red River Shootout in early October. Remember that Texas went down to Tuscaloosa early in the season, and were responsible for a double-digit loss being the only blemish on Alabama's résumé. Otherwise we may be talking Texas as the top seed, instead of sitting at three.
The Longhorns opened as a four point favorite against Washington in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. Michigan is a 4.5-point favorite over Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Before everyone goes up in arms that the Seminoles were left out in favor of Alabama, Florida State was not going to compete to the level of Alabama and Texas, once starting quarterback Jordan Travis was lost for the season with a leg injury on the opening series of their blowout win over North Alabama on November 18. Travis was going to be a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, which now looks more like Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. has a stranglehold on.
TCU in 2023 and Cincinnati in 2022 were examples of the CFP Committee putting in the most deserving teams, based on their body of work. TCU trounced Michigan, only to have the most lopsided loss in the history of the CFP in last season’s National Championship loss to Georgia. Cincinnati met a similar fate in the 2022 semifinals against Alabama. While Texas, Washington, Alabama, and Michigan all got better the final few weeks of the regular season, Florida State went backwards in a way that no program could overcome. The Seminoles threw for 273 against North Alabama, only 123 against rival Florida, and just 55 yards in the ACC Championship Game against Louisville.
The leap from seven to three is the largest jump to get in for any team on the outside since the CFP was established in 2014. Consequently, Georgia falling from the top spot to six was the largest descent after Championship Week as well.
Florida State was on their third quarterback against Louisville, so naturally you have the Ohio State argument from 2014, when the Buckeyes ran to the National Championship. The issue is that Ohio State hung 59 on Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship with Cardale Jones, then 42 and 40 against Alabama and Oregon in the playoff to claim the title. The Buckeyes kept their foot on the gas, much like Texas is doing now. The Travis injury poured a full bag of sugar into the gas tank of Florida State’s engine.
The job of the Committee is to seed the four best teams, regardless of their conference. With the Army/Navy game being the final non-bowl game left on the schedule, the four best teams were selected. We can get into teams that deserve a shot next year, when the field expands to 12. Remember that the ACC continually voted against expanding the playoff prior to the 2023 realignment announcements.
-JC24
-JC24