If I were to tell you that Ohio State would be 11-1, and Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin would all be 10-2, surely Ohio State would be playing for the right to be in the CFP semifinals on New Year’s Eve, right? News flash...the Buckeyes are sitting on their couches watching TV for at least the next three weeks, along with the Michigan team they just defeated.
The stakes were simple...if Michigan won yesterday, they win the Big 10 East Division, and move onto Indianapolis. A Michigan loss then left the decision in the hands of the Penn State/Michigan State game last night. A Penn State loss gets Ohio State to Indy, while a Nittany Lion win sets up a matchup with Wisconsin, who won the West Division outright.
Take one look at the CFP rankings going into yesterday...Ohio State at 2, Michigan 3, Wisconsin 6, Penn State 7. Four teams from one conference, and only one bid between them in all likelihood. The Buckeyes win will keep them at 2, but the interesting dynamic is how far Wisconsin and Penn State will move up. Alabama will maintain a majority share of the top spot, and #4 Clemson and #5 Washington will slide up to fill the void Michigan will leave empty.
Here’s where things get fun.
The Buckeyes are the second-best team in the nation right now, and as much as it pains me to say it there is little evidence to contradict that statement. The CFP has painted itself into a corner with a rabid animal blocking their only way out. The Buckeyes are the highest-ranked team in the best conference in college football this season, but sitting at home Saturday due to a 24-21 loss to Penn State back on 23 October. On two separate occasions the Buckeyes had a 12-point lead, before allowing 17 fourth quarter points en route to losing on their home field. The Nittany Lions were unranked at the time.
The two losses on Penn State’s schedule were to Michigan (49-10 in Week 4), and a Pitt (42-39 in Week Two) squad that is currently 8-4, and handed Clemson their only loss of the season two weeks ago. Wisconsin’s two blemishes were to the Buckeyes and Wolverines in consecutive weeks, and both were 7-point losses.
So where does this leave Ohio State right now? It’s very simple actually. The Buckeyes did their job in eliminating their hated rival from the conversation. Michigan is out, and there is no argument to that point. If the season ended today the Buckeyes are in. There’s just one big oversight...there are four teams playing three games next weekend, and the Buckeyes should be shut out of a second title in three years if everyone does their job...something the Buckeyes failed to do against Penn State.
If Washington beats #9 Colorado in the Pac 12 Championship Game on Friday, the Huskies are in. Clemson is likely to roll over Virginia Tech on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game, punching their ticket to New Year’s Eve as well. The winner of the Big Ten championship will have two losses. However, if that team is Penn State, the Buckeyes will spend the holidays pondering what could have been.
For those thinking the Buckeyes have done everything they needed to earn one of the four bids, despite not playing for their conference championship, those people must have the same logic that the 0-11 Cleveland Browns deserve a playoff spot based on how competitive they were earlier in the season. If you think this is my hatred of the Buckeyes coming out, you could not be further from the truth. Winning your conference championship is not a must-have criteria for getting into the CFP semifinal, but at least playing in it should be the bare minimum.
If you are going to stake a claim towards playing for the richest prize in college football, your argument had better be that if you are sitting home for your conference championship the two teams contesting for it do not have nearly as strong an argument. In the case of Wisconsin, the Buckeyes won the matchup, and deserve the nod if the Badgers win Saturday. If Penn State is victorious, there is no logical argument that Ohio State can make, assuming both Washington and Clemson maintain their status quos. If we were talking about a both Wisconsin and Penn State being 9-3, with two of those losses coming out of conference, then the Buckeyes would be a slam dunk case, as their 11-1 record would far outshine the two teams trying to earn their bid. If the Duke Blue Devils are in line for a #1 seed in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, while ranked third overall in the nation, and the Blue Devils lose their first game of the ACC tournament, there is a better than average chance they will be moved to the “2-line” on Selection Sunday.
Different sport, same ideology. Putting the Buckeyes into the playoff at the expense of bumping Washington, Clemson, or Penn State as conference champions would destroy the last ounce of credibility the NCAA had reestablished in creating the CFP, while abolishing the much-flawed Bowl Championship Series (BCS) in 2013.
As it stands in 2016, there are only four teams in the CFP race...not six, eight, or 32. Penn State controls all the cards as far as the bid coming out of the Big Ten at the moment. Five years ago, when there was talk of the “death penalty” in Happy Valley, no one imagined we would have this conversation regarding the Nittany Lions. An assistant coach had sexually abused children for more than three decades, and the entire scandal was covered up by various individuals within the university the entire time. A legendary football coach was rightfully vilified by most for his blind-eye mentality, just so he could pad his resume and ego. Bill O’Brien took the reigns of the Penn State program in the aftermath of the scandal, which landed the program four years probation by the NCAA. O’Brien left Penn State for the Houston Texans (NFL) job after the 2013 season, despite winning the Paul “Bear” Bryant Award as the best head coach in the country during his first season.
James Franklin became just the 16th head coach in Penn State history just days after Ohio State won the first CFP championship in 2014. The NCAA lifted Penn State’s ban after just two years, citing the immense strides the university had taken to correct the damage left by the regime prior to O’Brien. (No, it is not by coincidence that I refuse to mention the names of those involved in the scandal.) Franklin is also the first African-American coach in the school’s history. Franklin has finished with an even-or-better regular season record in his six years as a head coach between Vanderbilt and Penn State, and has led his program to a bowl game each year.
This time around, Franklin needs one more victory to secure a spot in one of the final three games of the college football season, while closing the door on the couch potatoes in Columbus.
-JC24